Batch size and predictability
Predictability comes from the delivery system rather than from effort. Smaller batches and limited work in progress reduce the variance in delivery times more reliably than pressure does.
Evidence grade: practice A widely adopted practitioner model with clear provenance.
Use it when
A team whose forecasts are wildly inconsistent; any programme trying to get predictability through exhortation.
Where it stops working
Small batches need tooling that makes shipping them cheap. Without it, cutting batch size only multiplies overhead.
Where the standard uses it
- DE-2Estimation, planning, and honest commitmentsManaging uncertainty rather than chasing accuracy.
Sources
- Donald G. Reinertsen. The Principles of Product Development Flow: Second Generation Lean Product Development. Celeritas Publishing, 2009. In the bibliography
Used alongside it
- Brooks's law practice
- Cycle time and historical forecasting practice
- The cone of uncertainty practice
- The planning fallacy research
Cite this model
Chicago, BibTeX and licence →Engineering Management Academy. (2026). Batch size and predictability. In Engineering Management Academy Body of Knowledge (Version 3.1, TEC.batch-size-and-predictability). https://www.engineeringmanagement.academy/body-of-knowledge/techniques/batch-size-and-predictability